Report

Continental Cooperation Tackling Trade Mispricing as an IFF Driver

Presented at the 3rd AAAG Conference, this briefing examines how trade misinvoicing and transfer pricing, around 65% of Africa's illicit financial flows, drain public revenue, and sets out how AfCFTA cooperation, integrated customs and tax systems and mirror analysis can stop the leakage.

About this report

Presented at the 3rd AAAG Conference, "Africa of Tomorrow: Positioning PFM for Economic Prosperity", this briefing argues that Africa is not resource-poor but resource-drained. Between 2000 and 2015, illicit capital flight from the continent reached $836 billion, more than its external debt, and illicit financial flows still drain an estimated $89 billion a year.

The presentation explains how trade misinvoicing and transfer pricing work, why the gap between customs valuation and tax rules creates room for profit shifting, and how weak commodity classification and missing mirror statistics let losses go undetected. It then sets out the tools available to close the gap: the AfCFTA customs and investment protocols, ASYCUDA World valuation controls, integrated customs and tax data, AI risk engines and blockchain.

It closes with strategic recommendations for Accountants General to lead integrated, technology-driven revenue assurance.

Key takeaways

  • Africa is a net creditor: $836bn left illicitly (2000–2015), more than its $770bn external debt
  • Illicit financial flows drain about $89bn a year, close to half the SDG financing gap
  • Trade misinvoicing and transfer pricing make up roughly 65% of these flows
  • Extractive-sector undervaluation costs an estimated $40bn in revenue every year
  • AfCFTA annexes on customs cooperation and risk management give a legal basis to act together
  • Linking customs and tax systems flags firms that declare low import values but high tax costs
  • Mirror analysis of partner trade data exposes misinvoicing at a national level

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